The soccer level has gradually grown in the United States and many doubt that Mexico is the “Concacaf Giant”. Now that the 2022 World Cup is being played in Qatar, the team coached by Gregg Berhalter has a better chance than the Tricolor of becoming world champion, something that looks very complicated for both, but the team of the Stars and Stripes is better positioned in a study that was carried out.
According to a study by the University of Innsbruck, the Mexican national team is in 20th place among the 32 teams favored to lift the title on December 18, while the United States is in 17th place, with 0.2% and 0.6% chances, respectively.
What is the probability of being World Cup champion based on?
“The forecast is based on a conditional inference random forest learning that combines information that captures the past, present and future of the soccer teams in which they compete: knowledge of the past, where it is captured in an estimate of capacity for each team based on historical matches,” according to the study.
It was conducted by Andreas Groll, Neele Hormann, Christophe Ley, Gunther Schauberger, Hans Van Eetvelde, Achim Zeileis, who unveiled the probabilities of each team based on historical information, the expectation that each team generates and the actuality of each team.
“Expectations about the future in the upcoming tournament are captured in an estimate of each team’s ability based on international bookmakers’ odds. The current status of the teams (and their countries) is represented by covariates such as market value or types of players in the team, as well as country-specific socio-economic factors such as population or GDP,” they add.
Brazil, the top favorite for the title
The top favorite to lift the title is the Brazilian national team, with a 15% chance, ahead of Argentina (11.2%), which was already Mexico’s opponent in the group stage with a 2-0 win for the Albiceleste.